Building on deep conflict expertise and the latest forecasting technologies, Crisis Group is developing a climate security early warning system for the Horn of Africa, the Environmental Early Action and Risk Tracking Hub (EEARTH). Starting with pilot projects in South Sudan and Somalia, EEARTH will identify early indications of deadly conflict stemming from climate shocks and encourage expeditious action to head it off. In so doing, the system aims to bridge the gap between climate analysis and crisis prevention, sounding the alarm and reaching affected populations with vital information sooner, faster and in a more targeted way.

EEARTH’s multidisciplinary approach combines cutting-edge climate forecasting, examination of data and on-the-ground political analysis. The system follows a three-stage process for tracking dangerous climate patterns that could lead to deadly conflict:

• Analysis: Identifying the pathways through which climate change exacerbates conflict by combining field research with quantitative data on climate hazards, livelihood exposures and conflict vulnerabilities.
• Anticipation: Real-time monitoring of climate, livelihood and conflict risks, through satellite data and fieldwork, in order to build scenarios and formulate early action recommendations.
• Action: Disseminating monthly situation reports, quarterly risk outlooks and urgent conflict alerts through a public interface as well as targeted advocacy with practitioners and decision-makers.

The platform will consolidate data from various organisations in the climate and social sciences, humanitarian and peacebuilding sectors but will remain grounded in Crisis Group’s deep field expertise and draw on its network of analysts. We are uniquely able to bring together multi-hazard analysis, real-time monitoring and actionable insights in order to inform decision-making.

EEARTH will serve several distinct audiences. It will help decision-makers understand, with great specificity, the interlinkages between climate and conflict risk, allowing them to formulate responses before deadly violence erupts. It will help donor countries and UN agencies allocate funding to areas with the greatest climate security spillover risk and take preventive action to head off costly humanitarian and peacekeeping interventions. In the Horn of Africa, the system’s granular monitoring and forecasting will inform climate programming attuned to conflict risks, enabling greater adaptability, collaboration and impact across the climate, humanitarian and peace nexus.